In a major shake-up of the global minerals market, the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances Markets (ARECOMS) has announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), starting February 22, 2025.
This decision is aimed at curbing the global oversupply of cobalt, a crucial metal used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and other advanced technologies. By temporarily halting exports, the Congolese government hopes to stabilize prices and regain control over its cobalt market.
However, while the move could boost prices in the long run, experts warn it carries significant economic and political risks.
Why Is the DRC Suspending Cobalt Exports?
Cobalt prices have plummeted in recent years, dealing heavy losses to both the government and mining companies. Artisanal miners—the backbone of the local cobalt supply—have been hit especially hard, struggling to make ends meet.
Several key factors have contributed to the price drop:
🔹 Oversupply and Hoarding – Buyers have stockpiled cobalt, leading to an excess supply and forcing producers to sell at lower prices.
🔹 Cheap Artisanal Production – Small-scale miners, often underpaid, sell their cobalt at rock-bottom prices, dragging down market rates.
🔹 Alternative Battery Technologies – The rise of cobalt-free batteries has reduced global demand for the metal.
By suspending exports, the Congolese government hopes to correct these market imbalances.
A Divided Reaction: Civil Society vs. Industry Experts
Many civil society groups have welcomed the move, seeing it as a strategic way to boost prices and help small-scale miners regain value for their work.
Alphonsine Tshilefe, a mining industry advocate, believes the suspension is a step in the right direction but questions whether four months is enough to make a lasting impact. She also asks how the government will manage stockpiles of unsold cobalt.
Meanwhile, Franck Fwamba, founder of the Natural Resources for Development NGO, argues that the suspension is necessary for the DRC to reclaim its influence in cobalt pricing. He also criticizes Chinese mining giant CMOC for ramping up production despite falling demand—benefiting China more than the DRC.
Fwamba highlights that global demand for cobalt is projected to hit 116,000 tons by 2030, driven mainly by electric vehicles. By restricting exports now, he believes the DRC can position itself as a stronger global player in the future.
Economic Risks: Can the DRC Afford This Move?
Despite these potential benefits, many experts fear the suspension could backfire.
Senator Godé Mpoyi warns that cutting off exports will lead to massive revenue losses for the government. Without coordinated action from other major producers, he argues the DRC risks damaging its own economy without influencing global prices.
Former Minister of Mines Willy Kitobo Samsoni criticizes the lack of consultation with mining companies, warning that the decision could disrupt foreign investment. He also cautions that without a clear plan, cobalt overproduction could reach crisis levels by the end of the year.
Mining Companies Push Back
Mining companies operating in the DRC have voiced strong opposition to the export ban, arguing that a four-month halt will cause significant financial losses.
Many rely on consistent cobalt sales to cover operational costs, and a sudden suspension threatens jobs, supply chains, and investment confidence.
Meanwhile, CASMIA-G, an organization advocating for mining governance, has raised concerns about companies seeking exemptions to bypass the ban. If certain firms continue exports while others are blocked, it could undermine the government’s efforts to stabilize prices.
What This Means for the Global Market
The DRC dominates global cobalt production, supplying nearly 75% of the world’s cobalt. However, most of its cobalt is exported as raw ore for processing abroad, limiting the country’s control over pricing.
By suspending exports, the DRC has the power to disrupt the supply chain, forcing buyers to reconsider their strategies.
With cobalt being a key component in preventing battery overheating, its role in EV technology remains critical. However, competition from alternative battery metals means the DRC must carefully navigate this policy to avoid long-term consequences.
The Road Ahead: A High-Stakes Gamble
The cobalt export suspension presents both opportunities and risks for the DRC. If managed well, it could push up global prices, benefit local miners, and strengthen the country’s position in the international market.
However, without a clear strategy for managing stockpiles, preventing smuggling, and coordinating with global partners, the move could backfire—costing the DRC billions in lost revenue and weakening its economy.
As the world watches, one question remains: Will this bold move pay off, or will it prove too costly for the DRC?
