Gold prices are on track to exceed $4,000 per ounce in 2026, according to a JP Morgan forecast released on April 22, 2025. The bank cited rising U.S. recession risks and escalating trade tensions with China as key drivers behind the bullish outlook.
JP Morgan expects gold to average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and to cross the $4,000 mark by Q2 2026. However, it warned that stronger-than-expected demand could push prices even higher, and sooner.
While global prices rise, gold output in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is moving in the opposite direction. In 2024, production at the Kibali mine—DRC’s largest gold producer—fell 10% to 686,000 ounces, the lowest level since 2019. Artisanal exports dropped sharply as well, plummeting 66% from 5.18 tonnes in 2023 to 1.75 tonnes in 2024.
The 2025 outlook remains grim. State-owned DRC Gold Trading SA continues to face operational setbacks due to insecurity in the east, driving up smuggling and reducing legal exports. A prolonged production slump could see the DRC miss out on the benefits of surging global prices—and may help keep prices elevated.
Investor and central bank demand is forecast to remain strong, averaging 710 tonnes per quarter in 2025. On April 22, gold spot prices hit $3,500 per ounce for the first time, driven by U.S.-China tensions and pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—moves that historically boost gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
A weakening U.S. dollar, which recently hit a three-year low against the euro, further supports the rally. Goldman Sachs also raised its 2025 gold forecast earlier this month to $3,700 per ounce, suggesting extreme cases could see prices soar to $4,500.
