Copper prices are expected to average around US$10,265 per tonne in the final quarter of 2024, according to estimates from Fastmarkets. Analysts at Reuters note that a positive economic outlook in both the United States and China will likely contribute to upward pressure on copper prices.
Goldman Sachs has also forecast a gradual increase in copper prices, predicting they will reach US$10,100 per tonne by 2025. This anticipated rise is expected to enhance revenues for copper producers by the end of 2024, benefiting both companies and countries involved in copper production.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s second-largest copper producer and Africa’s leading producer, is projected to benefit significantly from these trends. BMI forecasts a 4.5% increase in copper production in the DRC in 2024, which is expected to result in higher mining royalties for the Congolese government and increased export revenues.
The Central Bank of Congo estimates that copper exports will reach $23.2 billion in 2023, accounting for 78.4% of the DRC’s total exports.
Zambia’s mining sector also heavily relies on copper for its export revenues. In 2023, Zambian mines produced approximately 700,000 tonnes of copper, with production expected to rise to around 800,000 tonnes in 2024, according to the Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research.
Looking to the medium and long term, both the DRC and Zambia have ambitious production goals. Zambia aims to achieve an annual copper production target of 3 million tonnes by 2031, while the DRC is expected to reach a production level of 3 million tonnes in 2024 or 2025, driven by the ramp-up of its largest mine, Kamoa-Kakula.
With these developments, both the DRC and Zambia are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected increase in global copper demand in the coming years.
