China is ramping up its imports of off-exchange refined copper, fueled by a production boom in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and growing concerns over potential disruptions from U.S. scrap restrictions, according to analysts and traders.
This surge underscores China’s increasing reliance on Congolese copper, which now dominates a significant share of its imports.
Congo’s Copper Boom and China’s Growing Dependence
Thanks to years of Chinese investment, the DRC has solidified its position as the world’s second-largest copper producer, with production soaring in recent years. A major chunk of its exports to China consists of equivalent grade (EQ) copper—a high-purity metal that meets exchange quality standards but is not officially registered with trading platforms like the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
Despite having the same purity level as registered copper, EQ copper comes at a lower cost, making it an attractive alternative for Chinese buyers. Analysts expect EQ copper’s import volume and market share to expand even further in 2024.
In 2023, EQ copper accounted for 62% of China’s refined copper imports, a sharp rise from just under 50% in 2022, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).
Why China is Betting on EQ Copper
The global refined copper market remains tightly balanced, with demand outpacing supply in nine out of twelve months in 2024, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Citigroup estimates a supply deficit of 136,000 metric tons in 2025, further squeezing availability.
As prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have surged 9% since early 2024 and 18% year-over-year, smaller and mid-sized Chinese manufacturers—especially wire and rod producers—are increasingly turning to EQ copper as a cost-effective alternative.
“EQ copper has gained popularity in China because it offers the same quality as registered brands at a lower price,” noted a copper trader.
According to Fastmarkets, as of March 4, EQ copper with a minimum purity of 99.9935% carried a premium of just $3-$15 per ton over LME prices, compared to $50-$80 per ton for registered copper. This price gap stems from the absence of exchange registration fees and the premium associated with official trading platforms.
Trade Tensions and Supply Risks
China’s pivot toward Congolese EQ copper could also help cushion against a potential drop in U.S. copper scrap imports. The U.S. supplied China with 440,000 tons of copper scrap in 2023—nearly one-fifth of total scrap imports—but this supply could be at risk.
With former President Donald Trump’s tariff probe into copper raising trade war concerns, some traders have already paused U.S. scrap purchases, fearing higher tariffs and disrupted supply chains.
The Future of China’s Copper Market
Congo shipped nearly 75% of its two million tons of refined copper to China last year, a figure seven times higher than in 2019, according to LSEG and Chinese customs data. With no reported quality issues and a price advantage, EQ copper is likely to dominate China’s refined copper imports for years to come.
“The supply of refined copper—whether scrap, concentrate, anode, or blister—remains tight,” said Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at Project Blue. “We expect higher imports of refined copper, particularly EQ copper, to help compensate for this shortfall.”
As global supply constraints and escalating trade tensions reshape the copper market, China’s growing dependence on Congo’s EQ copper could become a defining factor in the industry’s future.
